Loudon is green. The model opens on Josh Berry’s Stage 3 run — 102 laps to the checkers, Magic Mile tire deg, and the Stage 2 pit log already loaded. Scrub any input or swap tracks.
Live · #21 Josh Berry leads · Final stage · ~102 laps to go
Kyle Larson
Position
P4
Started
P9
Interval
1 lap down
Laps led
18
Last stop
Lap 185
Status
Running
P4 after banking Stage 1 — one lap down, still in the hunt
Larson started 9th, won Stage 1, then lost the lead under the lap-84 yellow when he pitted and Preece stayed out. He finished Stage 2 fifth and is running 4th with ~102 laps left.
Competition caution — swapped rain tires for slicks with the field.
Won Stage 1, then a four-tire + fuel stop.
Pitted from the lead after the frontstretch stack. Preece stayed out and inherited P1.
Stage 2 P5. Four tires + fuel with the leaders.
Dollar Tree 301 · Stage 3 snapshot · ~5:23 p.m. ET
Current leader
Berry retakes the lead in the final stage
Wallace led the restart; Berry passed him. ~102 laps remain. Last cycle: lap 185 — Bubba Wallace first off. About 14 laps on this set.
Race progress
~199/301
Final stage · ~102 laps to go · 66% in
#21Josh Berry
Cleared Wallace early in Stage 3
#23Bubba Wallace
Won the race off pit road after Stage 2
#60Ryan Preece
Chase hunter — stayed out to lead Stage 2
#5Kyle Larson
Stage 1 winner · 1 lap down · 18 laps led
Fuel vs 88-lap tank
102 to go is 14 laps past a full NHMS tank. After the lap-185 stage-break stop, the field still needs at least one more splash.
Pit log
Field
Competition caution — wet Goodyears swapped for slicks.
Kyle Larson
Wins Stage 1, then pits with the field for four tires and fuel.
Kyle Larson
Pits from the lead after the frontstretch stack. Preece stays out and inherits P1.
Josh Berry
Leader green-flag stop. Blaney, Wallace, Preece cycle behind him.
Bubba Wallace
Wins Stage 2 pit road. Blaney hits trouble and restarts 14th.
Optimal stint
32
laps
Pit stops
3
stops
Projected total
54m 21.8s
Raw optimum
32.5
laps≈
#21 · Wood Brothers Racing
Dollar Tree 301 · last stop lap 185 · now lap 199
No official pit clocks
Berry last completed
53
laps · stop 185 · stage
Calculator optimal
32
laps · raw 32.5
Last dry stint ran +21 laps long vs Optimal Stint · extra tire fade +63.5s. Est. stint wall time 27m 58.6s.
His only green-flag stop (lap 132) was a 62-lap stretch — +30 vs optimal, +100.4s extra fade. Stages and cautions forced the other stops.
| Stop | Kind | Stint | vs opt | Est. time | Fade vs opt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
40 1–40 | caution | 40 | Rain tires | 20m 48.2s | — Competition caution — swapped rain tires for slicks with the field. |
70 41–70 | stage | 30 | −2 | 15m 25.3s | −4.4s Stage 1 P5. Four tires + fuel with the field. |
132 71–132 | green | 62 | +30 | 33m 3.8s | +100.4s Green-flag stop as the leader. Charged back to the front. |
185 133–185 | stage | 53 | +21 | 27m 58.6s | +63.5s Stage 2 service. Lost the race off pit road to Wallace — restarted 2nd. |
199+ 186–199 | open | 14so far | In progress | 7m 3.8s | — On this set now. |
USA TODAY live desk + field sequence. Official pit-stall clocks were not published — times on the calculator are this model’s estimates. Change lap time or deg rate above and these times update with the Optimal Stint number.
Counting down · 102 to go
Stop 1
70
to go
Stop 2
38
to go
Stop 3
6
to go
Berry actually stopped
Race laps · Dollar Tree 301
Stop 1 · caution
40
wets
Stop 2 · stage
70
race lap
Stop 3 · green
132
race lap
Stop 4 · stage
185
race lap
Model chips above are laps-to-go from here. Berry's chips are the actual stop laps already in the books — compared to Optimal Stint in the card above.
Tire mode: each lap on the same set costs a little more time (deg rate). Pitting costs a fixed chunk of wall time (pit loss). The green-flag stint that balances those over a long run is
optimal stint ≈ √(2 × pit loss ÷ deg rate)
We round that to a whole lap count, schedule stops every stint until the checkers, and rebuild lap times as a sawtooth: fresh tires pull the line down, deg walks it up, a vertical marker is a pit.
Fuel / superspeedway mode: deg is effectively noise, so stops follow the tank (laps per tank) instead of the tire square-root. Compare mode keeps the same base lap and pit loss — only stint length changes — then reports the total-time delta at the finish.
Model assumes clean green-flag running, equal service every stop, and no tire fall-off cliff past a wear threshold. Real races add weather, track evolution, stages, and the guy who jumps you on a caution.